The Ecology of Authoritarianism
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 accelerated an already entrenched trajectory: the steady erosion of environmental protections, the weakening of climate ambition, and the strategic use of fossil-fuel dependence as a geopolitical instrument. What had long been a gradual dismantling of oversight became, after the invasion, a deliberate political project—one reinforced by Europe’s and the international community’s remilitarization response, which Moscow now interprets as license to disrupt global consensus and undermine multilateral climate cooperation. At a moment when global emissions must urgently decline, Russia’s strategic escalation of environmental deregulation introduces a destabilizing wildcard into the global effort to contain climate risk. The result is a rapid de-environmentalization of the Russian state that directly threatens global climate stability.
Since February 24, 2022, when Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, wartime censorship and sanctions pressure have been used to justify a sweeping rollback of environmental norms. The Russian government has weakened or postponed core standards, abolished independent environmental impact assessments, expelled or criminalized major NGOs, and restricted access to emissions and pollution data, including by allowing state-controlled corporations to stop sustainability reporting altogether. Even within this shrinking evidence base, the trend is unmistakable: pollution and greenhouse gas emissions are rising. Satellite data show record gas flaring and methane super-emitter events. Company reports—before being curtailed—showed increased emissions intensity across oil and gas operations. Russia’s forest fires continue to destroy carbon sinks even as the government uses forests as an accounting device to defer meaningful decarbonization.
Russia’s climate policy has been captured by fossil-fuel and industrial lobbies. Targets remain tied to 1990 baselines that mask contemporary increases; methodological revisions create reductions on paper; and outdated gas, hydro, and nuclear infrastructure is marketed as “low-carbon.” Policy documents funded by coal and fertilizer oligarchs prioritize adaptation over mitigation, frame emissions controls as a threat to economic growth, and position tools like the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism as hostile acts. Internationally, Russia works to dilute fossil-fuel phaseout language while promoting divisive narratives—especially among the Global South—designed to weaken collective climate action.
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Table of contents
Executive Summary 1
Background 3
Chapter 1. The Post-Invasion Acceleration of Russia’s Anti-Environmental Governance 4
1.1 A Pre-Existing Trajectory of Environmental Decline 9
1.2 The Erosion of Transparency and Public Oversight 10
1.3 What the Remaining Evidence Reveals 11
1.4 Escalating Gas Flaring Under Weakening Regulation 12
1.5 Corporate Emissions Trends: Rising Pollution Behind Closed Doors 13
1.6 Atmospheric Indicators of Worsening Emissions 15
1.7 A Growing Crisis of Oil Spills and Pipeline Failures 15
1.8 Conclusion: Mounting Environmental Pressures in a Deregulated System 16
Chapter 2. Russia’s Climate Policy: New Times, Old Tricks 17
2.1 Repackaging “Hot Air”: How Russia Manipulates Its Climate Commitments 19
2.2 Methane: The Invisible Driver of Russia’s Rising Emissions 23
2.3 Climate Policy as Geopolitical Instrument 24
2.4 Fossil Fuel Capture of Russia’s Climate Agenda 26
2.5 The Sakhalin Carbon Experiment: Symbolism Without Substance 28
Chapter 3. Confronting the Global Consequences: Strategies for Collective Action 30
3.1 Why the Awareness Gap Matters: Global Risks and Strategic Blind Spots 32
3.2 Countering Russia’s Environmental Deregulation: A Framework for Collective International Action 33
References 35